Ukraine's Position on Donbas Withdrawal

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has firmly rejected any peace deal that involves Ukraine unilaterally withdrawing from the eastern Donbas region. This stance was articulated during a recent interview with Axios, as Ukrainian and Russian negotiators engaged in a third round of direct talks in Geneva. The control of Donbas remains a contentious issue, with approximately 10% still under Ukrainian control.

U.S. Mediation and Zelensky's Concerns

Amid ongoing negotiations, U.S. mediators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have conveyed to Zelensky that Russia appears genuine in its desire to end the conflict. However, Zelensky expressed skepticism, advising the mediators against pressuring him to endorse a peace vision that would be unpopular among Ukrainians. He criticized former President Donald Trump's approach, which he perceived as unfairly pressuring Ukraine to make concessions.

Proposals and Sticking Points

The U.S. mediators suggested that Ukrainian forces could withdraw from parts of Donbas to create a demilitarized "free economic zone," though Washington has not specified which nation should hold sovereignty. Zelensky is open to discussing troop withdrawal but demands reciprocal action from Russia and rejects any claim of Russian sovereignty over the area.

Referendum and Public Sentiment

Any potential peace deal will be subject to a Ukrainian referendum, according to an agreement between Washington and Kyiv. Zelensky believes that if the deal involves ceding sovereignty and citizenship in Donbas, it would likely be rejected by the Ukrainian public. He emphasized the emotional and national significance of the territory, stating that Ukrainians would not forgive such a concession.

Challenges and Future Outlook

Negotiations have been complicated by the appointment of Vladimir Medinsky, a new leader for the Russian delegation, whom Zelensky suspects may use philosophical arguments to delay progress. Despite slow political talks, military discussions in Abu Dhabi have shown more promise, with both sides considering a U.S.-led mechanism to monitor a ceasefire. However, Russia's reluctance to involve European countries remains a hurdle.

As talks continue, the possibility of new presidential elections looms, potentially coinciding with a referendum. Zelensky hinted he might run, contingent on public sentiment. For now, Russia's offer of a one-day ceasefire for a national vote is seen by Zelensky as insufficient, suggesting Moscow might not be committed to genuine peace.